Articulate the Human Impact of Change in Organizations

Example of How an Industry Failed to Anticipate the Future Using Scenario Analysis: 

An example of an industry that failed to detect through scenario analysis or that citizen journalists has disrupted mainstream media during the pandemic (Panahi, 2021).  Australia represents a sort of ground zero for crimes against humanity.  One reason Australia is under attack is mainly due to the people having no guns, no bill of rights, and the government covertly reregistered all the citizens to an offshore island fraudulently to undermine their liberty and God-given rights for economic motivations (Christopher, 2021; Daniel, 2021; Johnstone, 2021).  During the pandemic, CNN lost 90% of its viewership.  The reasons widely cited are a loss of confidence and 'fake' news narratives controlled by the deep state CIA's Mockingbird Media psyops, crisis actor propaganda, and censorship 'legalized' by the Smith-Mundt Modernization Act of 2012 (JohnMichaelChambers, 2020; Pocketsofthefuture, 2015).  Typically the CIA has used the tactics of psyops, propaganda, and censorship in foreign countries to accomplish regime changes called 'color revolutions' now getting used against Americans to bring in the Globalist's New World Order/One World Government aspirations (Jones, 2020).  Citizen journalists have taken over media to uncover truths deliberately distorted and inverted by mainstream media outlets funded by globalist interests.   

How Scenario Planning Help Plan and Innovate for Change

Companies and industries that continuously collect customer feedback and consumer preferences can sometimes detect and anticipate small potentially disruptive changes in advance.  Companies that consider scenarios based on market intelligence can prepare organizations to react to changes more quickly.  Another technique organizations use to innovate is simulating small incubator-type startups that may be on a smaller economic scale than the rest of the enterprises as test pilots to foster new idea generation.  The customer feedback and indications of possible disruption often get termed as 'early warning indicators' (Ogilvy, 2015; Woody Wade, 2012).   These ideas get generated by innovative consumers, or in obscure news stories in unexpected places, or on social media, or a political figure could utter a few words in a speech that signals legislation that could impact your business (Etika, 2019).  When organizations track and plan for multiple scenarios, one of those begin to unfold. The company has a  head start on implementing that scenario because it already has a plan.  

The Forces and Impacts Involved

An eight-step process to carry out scenario planning helps identify the forces and impacts one by one.  Table 1 outlines the steps to create a scenario analysis plan. 

Eight-Step Scenario Analysis Planning Process
Step #	Step Name	Step Description	Examples
1	Focal Issue	(a) A specific question, or (b) An open-ended question	(a) Should we create a startup entity that can tell the truth and is not beholden to what news' corporate sponsors dictate and approve the narrative?  (b) How could independent citizen journalists disrupt our viewership numbers?
2	Key Factors	Conduct a brainstorming session to create an exhaustive list of factors impacting the focal issue.  The list should be lengthy.	◦ Customer demand ◦ Identify the Competition ◦ Delivery Infrastructure ◦ Resources including funding and human capital ◦ New alternative technologies that could disrupt the status quo ◦ Etc.
3	External Forces	Consider macro and environmental factors such as geopolitical, social, technological, and economic landscapes.	◦ Pandemics ◦ Wars ◦ Currency valuation changes ◦ Migration trends ◦ Cultural phenomenon ◦ Political actors
4	Critical Uncertainties	Requires prioritization of two factors that create uncertainty (a) significance to the focal issue and (b) extent of uncertainty.  The list should be short.	◦ Gasoline prices and impact on economy and sentiments ◦Trend direction of consumer preferences ◦ Political risk See Figure 3. The illustration provides a template to help prioritize the forces, factors, drivers, and critical uncertainties
5	Scenario Logistics	This challenging step comprises reducing a list of infinite future scenarios to only 2-5 that will spark strategy inspirations.  Often, this process takes place at a first workshop.	See Figure 2 as an example that displays the short-listed scenarios placed in one of four quadrants of the 2 x 2 scenario matrix.  Choose scenarios that would fall into each quadrant based on the criteria on each directional axis.
6	Scenarios	A scenario consists of a story best written by one author rather than a committee.  An individual can gather stories of a team of subject matter experts and create a clear account, even synthesized from a group working session.	See Figure 2, diagram the bullets in each quadrant represent the stories or scenarios that correspond to the values on each axis of the quadrant.
7	Implications & Options	A second working group session will explore each scenario, the corresponding strategic options, and the various potential outcomes.	Frequently some population demographics play a role in forecasts.  The example cited often represents population characteristics forecasts from Stratfor forecasts demographics.
8	Early Indicators	The first signs of significant changes or trends distinguish each scenario.  The symptoms can come from cutting-edge consumers, new journals, or publications highlighting the popularity of new technologies or some signal of political winds changing.	Real-life examples include practicing and developing strategies that arise from the early indicators.   One can think of having these strategies in a place akin to a contingency plan to survive an unexpected accident.  Possibly the best approach would confront any number of scenarios.
Source: (Ogilvy, 2015)

Illustration/Model of How Scenario Analysis Helps Anticipate Change

The diagrams in Figures 1, 2, and 3 illustrate the various aspects discussed in the eight-step scenario planning process described in Table 1. 

Eight-Step Scenario Planning Process:

                        Figure 1.  Eight-step scenario analysis planning process (Described in Table 1)

 

                            Source: (Ogilvy, 2015)

Two by Two Scenario Matrix Independent/Citizen Journalists Industry Example:

                               Figure 2.  Two by two scenario matrix for the media disruption scenarios 

Source: (Ogilvy, 2015; Rhydderch, 2017; Woody Wade, 2012)

Ranking Drivers of Change by Importance and Uncertainty Template:

                         Figure 3.  Ordering the driving forces of trends and changes by consequence and doubt

                                Source: (Rhydderch, 2017)

Summary: 

How I Will Use Scenario Planning for Future Innovation Efforts:

I believe that scenario analysis planning can provide a valuable tool in real-life scenarios for decision-making in our private lives, academic research projects, and professional endeavors.  I would consider using scenario planning for these settings to make better decisions and achieve better outcomes.  Parts of scenario analysis are better conducted with team inputs to engage in the workshops, and brainstorming sessions as 'two heads are better than one'. It's easier for two or more people to solve a problem than for one individual alone to solve a problem and discover innovations to help achieve better outcomes.  Remember that a single individual better synthesizes the information gathered from the workshops and brainstorming sessions into explicit stories or scenarios.    

Does the Scenario Plan Account for the Social Impact of Change:

One social impact of the change could be that people revert or retreat to old-school low-tech methods to evade outcomes, including censorship.  For example, when governments and big tech continue to collude to block independent citizen journalists that don't agree with the approved narrative, the offending truth-tellers face technological roadblocks: de-platforming, demonetization, lawfare, cancel culture, debanking, subjected to Stasi-style media hit pieces, blamed and demonized for false-flags, arrests, and generally attempts by the opposition to kill independent citizen journalists both literally and figuratively.  A response could be to ditch technology and revert to pens and pencils.  I remember in the mid-90s thinking my manager was crazy when he said, 'I'll be the last man standing with my pen and pencil when all the computers 'blow up'.  Today that statement makes a lot more sense to me.          

References:

Christopher, M. (2021). Who Owns Everything in Australia? [YouTube Video]. https://youtu.be/4WeJ_syJtnU

Daniel. (2021). Australia Banned Guns: Now Their Citizens Are Being Shot by Police for COVID Protests. Retrieved 1/29/2022 from https://welovetrump.com/2021/09/22/australia-banned-guns-now-their-citizens-are-being-shot-by-police-for-covid-protests/

Etika, D. N. (2019). CITIZEN JOURNALISM AND IT'S IMPACTS ON PROFESSIONAL JOURNALISM IN PROGRESSIVES SOCIETY: A STUDY OF 2019 GOVERNORSHIP ELECTION IN CROSS RIVER STATE. Eureka Journals. https://www.academia.edu/66017129/CITIZEN_JOURNALISM_AND_ITS_IMPACTS_ON_PROFESSIONAL_JOURNALISM_IN_PROGRESSIVES_SOCEITY_A_STUDY_OF_2019_GOVERNORSHIP_ELECTION_IN_CROSS_RIVER_STATE 

JohnMichaelChambers. (2020). Patrick Bergy of Shadow Gate & Ret. Lt. Scott Bennett - Smith Mundt Act & The Psyop - B152 https://www.bitchute.com/video/lVkdJ64MJ3Q1/

Johnstone, C. (2021). Editor's Сhoice Australia Has No Bill of Rights, and It Shows. Strategic Culture Foundation. Retrieved 1/29/2022 from https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2021/09/10/australia-has-no-bill-of-rights-and-it-shows/

Jones, D. E. M. (2020). Our Interesting Times - E. Michael Jones on Electoral Fraud as Color Revolution Bitchute - Walrus. https://www.bitchute.com/video/lrKWeHH53I6E/

Ogilvy, J. (2015). Scenario Planning and Strategic Forecasting. Forbes. Retrieved 1/30/2022 from https://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2015/01/08/scenario-planning-and-strategic-forecasting/

Panahi, R. (2021). Rise in citizen journalists due to 'failures' of much of the mainstream media S. c. AU; @SkyNewsAust. https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/outsiders/rise-in-citizen-journalists-due-to-failures-of-much-of-the-mainstream-media/video/b573c7078424f708106beac50552a1c5

Pocketsofthefuture. (2015). Psyops, False Flag Hoax & Crisis Actor Propaganda Legalized By Law - Smith & Mundt Modernization Act Of 2012 https://12160.info/profiles/blogs/psyops-false-flag-hoax-crisis-actor-propaganda-legislated-smith-m

Rhydderch, A. (2017). Scenario Building: The 2x2 Matrix Technique. 

Woody Wade, N. W. (2012). Scenario planning a field guide to the future. Wiley. Retrieved 1/30/2022 from https://read.amazon.com/?asin=B007LHHQKM