Group decision-making methods, including the Delphi technique

 

The Delphi method involves surveying a pool of experts to reach a group determination.  Each expert replies to multiple stages of surveys.  After each phase, the questionnaires get gathered and distributed to the team of experts.  After reviewing the group feedback provided after each step, the experts may edit their responses.  The goal is to arrive at a genuine consensus on the collective group-think decision.  The origins of the Delphi method get credited to Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey of the Rand Corporation (The Decision Lab, 2022).  The name gets its inspiration from the Oracle of Delphi; an ancient Greek priestess celebrated for her predictions at the temple of Apollo.  The Delphi method is a good choice when the team members are not available to meet at the same time or place as the questionnaires are completed and reviewed independently.

In most cases, the final opinions align to form a generalized consensus, where a joint agreement gets reached.  Detractors of the Delphi Method argue that group decision is a misnomer because the process doesn't allow for constructive debates and interactions among those on the expert panel.  Factors such as peer pressure and social conformity come into play.  The controlled feedback prescribed by the Delphi method eliminates the chance for any debates.  The Rand Corp, a public policy think tank with headquarters in Santa Monica, CA, developed the process.  The project managers Helmer and Dalkey intended to nurture cooperation among military authorities.  Other issues cited include when participants misunderstand the question asked or each expert interprets the question differently.  Also, open-ended questions make it challenging for patterns among answers to get identified, or experts possess varying levels of expertise.  The Delphi process does not account for biases, or psychological influences, including the imposter syndrome that is common in high achieving people that doubt their abilities (Ruchika Tulshyan & Jodi-Ann Burey, 2021; The Decision Lab, 2022)

The Delphi technique is frequently gets compared to brainstorming (Toolshero.nl (Dutch), 2017).  However, one vital distinction between the two methods: the Delphi method has no group communications.  The participants do not participate in discussions and collaborate or expand on others' ideas like teams performed when brainstorming (Dagher, 2021).  In Delphi, you can gain an understanding of other team members' ideas, and then in the second step, add to those ideas.  The team engages in interactive group sessions in brainstorming, wherein Delphi employs individually considering the problem. 

Brainstorming represents a type of group decision making serves as an effective method of originating ideas, elaborating on the problem, and raising potential solutions.  The format often takes an open, freely-flowing discussion of ideas and a description of the problem usually involves a whiteboard to diagram the situation.  The team shares the approach and makes many suggestions and ideas about the root cause of the problem and potential solutions.  The best-proposed solution can get selected from the many ideas generated by the many suggested solutions.   

Interestingly, the Delphi method became popular only after becoming declassified by the US government, which begs the question of why something like this would need to be classified.  Per Walter Lippman's quote, "Where all think alike, no one thinks very much.".   It sounds like a great way to herd sheep and walk them off a cliff.   

References:

Dagher, K. (2021).  10 of the Most Effective Group Decision Making Techniques.  Fellow.  Retrieved 1/2/2022 from https://fellow.app/blog/productivity/group-decision-making-techniques/

Ruchika Tulshyan, & Jodi-Ann Burey. (2021).  Stop Telling Women They Have Imposter Syndrome.  Harvard Business Review.  https://hbr.org/2021/02/stop-telling-women-they-have-imposter-syndrome

The Decision Lab.  (2022).  The Delphi Method - The Decision Lab.  @thedecision_lab.  Retrieved 1/2/2022 from https://thedecisionlab.com/reference-guide/management/the-delphi-method/

Toolshero.nl (Dutch). (2017, 2017-12-05). Delphi Technique.  @toolshero.  Retrieved 1/2/2022 from https://www.toolshero.com/decision-making/delphi-technique/

 

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